The model for the evolution of firms and industries is based on our scientific work Thermodynamics of Firms Growth, available at the Journal of the Royal Society Interface website (DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2015.0789).
E. Zambrano, A. Hernando, A.F. Bariviera, R. Hernando, A. Plastino, J. R. Soc. Interface 12, 20150789 (2015)
The distribution of firms’ growth and firms’ sizes is a topic under intense scrutiny. In this paper, we show that a thermodynamic model based on the maximum entropy principle, with dynamical prior information, can be constructed that adequately describes the dynamics and distribution of firms’ growth. Our theoretical framework is tested against a comprehensive database of Spanish firms, which covers, to a very large extent, Spain’s econ- omic activity, with a total of 1 155 142 firms evolving along a full decade. We show that the empirical exponent of Pareto’s law, a rule often observed in the rank distribution of large-size firms, is explained by the capacity of econ- omic system for creating/destroying firms, and that can be used to measure the health of a capitalist-based economy. Indeed, our model predicts that when the exponent is larger than 1, creation of firms is favoured; when it is smaller than 1, destruction of firms is favoured instead; and when it equals 1 (matching Zipf’s law), the system is in a full macroeconomic equilibrium, entailing ‘free’ creation and/or destruction of firms. For medium and smaller firm sizes, the dynamical regime changes, the whole distribution can no longer be fitted to a single simple analytical form and numerical prediction is required. Our model constitutes the basis for a full predictive framework regarding the economic evolution of an ensemble of firms. Such a structure can be potentially used to develop simulations and test hypothetical scenarios, such as economic crisis or the response to specific policy measures.